Comments on: Markets and Election Outcomes http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/ My opinions only. I do not represent any organization in this publication. Mon, 14 Jun 2010 02:36:12 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Mike Linksvayer » Experts agree to bark like dogs http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-23945 Mike Linksvayer » Experts agree to bark like dogs Sun, 03 Sep 2006 05:52:12 +0000 http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-23945 [...] Fortunately there are again (see Historical Presidential Betting Markets) markets to give anyone who wants one a reality check. However, it is rare (in the U.S.) for a “third party” candidate to be significant enough for an election market to cast any light on their chances. Often “field” will be available (for example, Intrade currently lists the following spreads for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party): Democrat 49.1/49.2, Republican 47.6/48.4, Field 2.9/3.2) but chance accorded by traders to “the field” has to be based on the expectation that a viable independent will come out of the woodwork (e.g., Ross Perot in 1988) rather than the expectation that a Green, Libertarian, or other minor party candidate has a non-negligible chance of victory. This is too bad in a way, as my casual observation says that minor party backers are more delusional than most when it comes to their candidate’s chances. [...] [...] Fortunately there are again (see Historical Presidential Betting Markets) markets to give anyone who wants one a reality check. However, it is rare (in the U.S.) for a “third party” candidate to be significant enough for an election market to cast any light on their chances. Often “field” will be available (for example, Intrade currently lists the following spreads for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party): Democrat 49.1/49.2, Republican 47.6/48.4, Field 2.9/3.2) but chance accorded by traders to “the field” has to be based on the expectation that a viable independent will come out of the woodwork (e.g., Ross Perot in 1988) rather than the expectation that a Green, Libertarian, or other minor party candidate has a non-negligible chance of victory. This is too bad in a way, as my casual observation says that minor party backers are more delusional than most when it comes to their candidate’s chances. [...]

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer » Becker-Posner for Perpetual War http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3779 Mike Linksvayer » Becker-Posner for Perpetual War Sat, 14 Jan 2006 06:26:58 +0000 http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3779 [...] Hindsight is wonderful, eh? Unfortunately there’s no reason to expect it to be 20-20 unless we hold nearly everything constant. Foresight is even harder. We desperately need tools that provide better estimates of the impact of policy than bogus intellectual handwaving and self-serving bureaucratic guesstimation. Conditional futures, which I’ve mentioned here and here may be one such tool. I don’t think conditional futures is quite the term of art, but see Robin Hanson’s page on policy markets for a good explanation and his pages on the Policy Analysis Market and idea futures for far more in depth treatment. [...] [...] Hindsight is wonderful, eh? Unfortunately there’s no reason to expect it to be 20-20 unless we hold nearly everything constant. Foresight is even harder. We desperately need tools that provide better estimates of the impact of policy than bogus intellectual handwaving and self-serving bureaucratic guesstimation. Conditional futures, which I’ve mentioned here and here may be one such tool. I don’t think conditional futures is quite the term of art, but see Robin Hanson’s page on policy markets for a good explanation and his pages on the Policy Analysis Market and idea futures for far more in depth treatment. [...]

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3536 Mike Linksvayer Wed, 07 Dec 2005 08:17:23 +0000 http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3536 <strong>Prediction Markets Summit extract of an extract</strong> I sadly could not attend last Friday’s mini-conference in San Francisco on prediction markets, but Peter McCluskey has an informative write up. Apparently Tradesports explained why it makes it a pain to link to its contracts. They want to sell ... Prediction Markets Summit extract of an extract

I sadly could not attend last Friday’s mini-conference in San Francisco on prediction markets, but Peter McCluskey has an informative write up.
Apparently Tradesports explained why it makes it a pain to link to its contracts. They want to sell …

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3320 Mike Linksvayer Tue, 30 Aug 2005 05:39:12 +0000 http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3320 <strong>Three open source prediction market software options</strong> In May there were none. The software that has run Foresight Exchange for many years was open sourced today (under an odd license). Zocalo had a new release last week. FreeMarket seems to have been available for a little over a month. For the heck... Three open source prediction market software options

In May there were none.
The software that has run Foresight Exchange for many years was open sourced today (under an odd license).
Zocalo had a new release last week.
FreeMarket seems to have been available for a little over a month.
For the heck…

]]> By: Mike Linksvayer » Blog Archive » Aubrey de Grey at Stanford http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3043 Mike Linksvayer » Blog Archive » Aubrey de Grey at Stanford Mon, 13 Jun 2005 06:56:16 +0000 http://gondwanaland.com/mlog/2004/09/26/markets-and-election-outcomes/#comment-3043 [...] could meet this claim.) It would be very interesting to see versions of the above claims conditioned on the M Prize reaching some fundraising goal. [...] [...] could meet this claim.) It would be very interesting to see versions of the above claims conditioned on the M Prize reaching some fundraising goal.

[...]

]]>