Comments on: Electability predictions

By: Midas Oracle .ORG » Blog Archive » Nominatibility and Electability - 2008 presidential prediction markets

Mon, 23 Jul 2007 12:24:44 +0000

[...] and Electability - 2008 presidential prediction markets Via our usual suspect Mike Linksvayer (recently featured in the New York Times for his weird diet), David Schneider-Joseph (a Foresight [...]

By: Mike Linksvayer

Mike Linksvayer — Mon, 13 Nov 2006 04:28:06 +0000

I did not bet on anyone in the US 06 elections.

I bet on Obrador in the Mexico 06 elections, for exactly the reason described here (I was glad to lose).

Yes, the industry is becoming more mainstream. It will be commonplace to quote prices in mainstream media in the 08 cycle. Whether this will be a plateau or inflection point, I do not know.

I hope the latter. I don’t care about political horse race betting per se, only as a necessary component of contingent markets that inform voters of the probable outcomes of their choices.

By: Andrew Goldberg

Andrew Goldberg — Sun, 12 Nov 2006 19:42:41 +0000

Hi! I’m a graduate student at the Columbia School of Journalism, and
an avid fan of political prediction markets (I participated at
intrade for the first time this election cycle, and I also enjoy
tracking developments at mock markets like thewsx.com,
newsfutures.com, and poolitics.com).

I’m freelancing an article about how well the markets did at
predicting the results of the election last week, and I was really
hoping you’d be willing to share a few thoughts. I recently came across your site, and I’m curious to know more about how you got
interested in blogging about political stock markets. Who, if anyone, did you bet on in 06 and how did you do? Do you think
the industy is becoming more mainstream? Where do you see it headed
over the next few election cycles?

Any insight you’d be willing to share would be
greatly appreciated!