The context of that discussion was talking about allowing people to create their own markets vs. having them only be run by a central entity or only through recommendations by a consulting firm.
We were also talking about the insights you may get by running prediction markets that are not readily apparent in the market results.

The original point was, by allowing people to ask as many questions as possible, the questions may be a signal themselves pointing to something that you didn’t previously know about. If someone asks a question about the probability of a risk factor occurring that you never even considered before, for example. That would never have been uncovered, otherwise because the “prediction market administrators” wouldn’t even have known to ask.

How about: the boss walks down the hall (?)

I’m sure there’s more to the lie-detecting software service that post mentions but in successful companies I’ve work for, the executives in charge of allocating budgets and resources would never take any proposal/presentation by mid-management at face value and always did their own research by, you know, talking to the engineers.

meanwhile “black swan” has become a buzz word, that’s all. People buy that book, never read it (or like me, read it and don’t get it) and assume it’s safe to throw the term around.