Google and Yahoo! turn up no futarchists and nothing about futarchism or futarchisms. Are you a futarchist?
…
What are the implications of the Lucas critique for futarchy and prediction markets generally, or social policy bonds? Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: Acquiring And Aggregating Costly Information From Sources Of Differing Quality (2006; PDF) mentions in passing:
There is a third theoretical doubt, a type of “Lucas critique.†If a prediction market becomes reliable, and this reliability changes policy or politics, this creates strategic incentives to manipulate the market. If the strategic incentives are strong enough, they could offset any monetary losses incurred by the manipulators.
Very indirectly via Patri Friedman, who mentioned Goodhart’s Law.
I suspect the implication is that although making sense of prediction markets seems a little harder the critique probably applies more strongly to bureaucratic goal setting, making market mechanisms look relatively better than in absence of the critique. That’s just a wild[ly biased] speculation.
[…] I wouldn’t expect it to. At a minimum you need something like approval voting or at the extreme delegable proxy voting. I’ve always found such reforms curious but distracting, as I don’t know what their impact on policy outcomes would be, and I suspect they’d be small. However given that voters are not outcome oriented I wonder if being able to make a closer to their ideal expression when oting would make voters happier, at least for time they are in the voting booth. […]
[…] is a decade or two behind free software. Prediction markets are obviously in the same boat, and futarchy is far out to […]
[…] years ago I used play money contracts traded at the Foresight Exchange to provide a Futarchist Voter Guide (though I didn’t call it that). This U.S. election cycle relevant real money […]
[…] years ago I used play money contracts traded at the Foresight Exchange to provide a Futarchist Voter Guide (though I didn’t call it that). This U.S. election cycle relevant real money […]
[…] to tell me that local voting on desired outcomes, global betting on how to achieve same (i.e., futarchy) is another approach to obtaining more inputs into good governance, good for you. But all of the […]