Reason published answers given by quasi-libetarian quasi-celebrities when asked how they voted in 2000 and how they intend to vote in 2004. Peter Mork crunched the numbers. Versus the 2000 distribution, Kerry wins big while Badnarik (the Libertarian Party’s sure loser for 2004) and Nader crater.
For fun I did a bit more completely unwarranted crunching. If the share of libertarianesque votes holds constant and is defined by votes for Browne (sure loser 2000) divided by the fraction of Reason’s quasi-lib-celebs who reported voting for Browne, we get close to 1% of total votes cast. Given the shift in intended votes reported by Reason and Mork and holding the total number of votes cast constant, voters similar to those Reason surveyed should increase Kerry’s margin over Bush by about 190,000 votes versus Gore’s performance.