Google Futures

Google announced they’re using prediction markets internally:

The markets were designed to forecast product launch dates, new office openings, and many other things of strategic importance to Google. So far, more than a thousand Googlers have bid on 146 events in 43 different subject areas (no payment is required to play).

Very cool. However, I wonder about their accuracy of prices graph. It isn’t clear when the prices graphed were taken relative to the events predicted. It appears that very low probability events are overpriced and very high probability events are underpriced, as on the Foresight Exchange.

Prediction markets should become a standard groupware feature.

On the subject of punditry, i.e., predictions made without consequence for the predictor, Art Hutchinson has claimed over the past several months that use of internal prediction markets is on the upswing. I said so in January. :-)

2 Responses

  1. Duly noted Mike, however my prognostication was that this summer represented an *inflection point*. We’re both right… which is very cool. :)
    Thanks for the TB.

  2. […] of predictions, of course Google began using prediction markets internally. Yahoo!s Tech Buzz Game has some markets relevant to search but I don’t know how to interpret […]

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