Bias enumeration

Via Chris F. Masse, there’s a new blog you should subscribe to, Overcoming Bias. Robin Hanson is blogging there and I’m equally excited to see Hal Finney blogging as well. I previously called Finney a great signal-to-noise enhancer (search to find his thousands of excellent mailing list contributions).

Finney posted a quiz based on Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement, of which I have a still unread copy. I scored +30 in the “fox” direction — I chose the “hedgehog” answers for #3 (for some definitions of “parsiminous” and “politics”, I thought initially, but “closer than many think” is the key), #11, and #12. Apparently Tetlock says foxes make more accurate predictions, though I note one of the later chapters of his book is “The Hedgehogs Strike Back” and Hanson calls the quiz “kind of doofy.”

For awhile I’ve also meant to recommend excellent thinker Nick Szabo’s blog. His law of the dominant paradigm seems apropos to the topic of overcoming bias:

Given opposing opinions with equal evidence in their favor, the less popular opinion is more likely to be correct.

Also see his underappreciated ideas post of a few days ago. I commented on one of Szabo’s posts and will blog about others in the fullness of time.

2 Responses

  1. […] Yaron Koren also says that Semantic MediaWiki is “the technology that will revolutionize the web” and has built DiscourseDB using the software. DiscourseDB catalogs political opinion pieces. Koren’s post on aggregating analysis using DiscouseDB. Unsurprisingly this analysis shows the political experts making bad calls. […]

  2. […] news from Hal Finney, diagnosed with ALS. I’ve only met him briefly, but have been following his writing, mostly on mailing lists, for nearly two decades. Very few if any people exist whose […]

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