Via Chris F. Masse, there’s a new blog you should subscribe to, Overcoming Bias. Robin Hanson is blogging there and I’m equally excited to see Hal Finney blogging as well. I previously called Finney a great signal-to-noise enhancer (search to find his thousands of excellent mailing list contributions).
Finney posted a quiz based on Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement, of which I have a still unread copy. I scored +30 in the “fox” direction — I chose the “hedgehog” answers for #3 (for some definitions of “parsiminous” and “politics”, I thought initially, but “closer than many think” is the key), #11, and #12. Apparently Tetlock says foxes make more accurate predictions, though I note one of the later chapters of his book is “The Hedgehogs Strike Back” and Hanson calls the quiz “kind of doofy.”
Given opposing opinions with equal evidence in their favor, the less popular opinion is more likely to be correct.