Prediction Markets Summit extract of an extract

I sadly could not attend last Friday’s mini-conference in San Francisco on prediction markets, but Peter McCluskey has an informative write up.

Apparently Tradesports explained why it makes it a pain to link to its contracts. They want to sell access to the data. I don’t see easy linking and data sales as mutually exclusive, but Tradesports’ current practice doesn’t help it win bigger opportunities (becoming the dominant PM exchange).

A Microsoft representative promoted the use of open source licenses. (Indirectly.)

An implication that real money traders did consider the Bush re-election good for terrorist stock:

[Eric Zitzewitz] showed an amusing graph indicating that Tradesports prices implied Osama was twice as likely to be captured in October 2004 as in November 2004 (implying some connection with the U.S. elections).

With conditional futures voters could’ve been informed of that collective opinion before the election.

Go read McCluskey’s comments, replete with links.

Chris Hibbert is also blogging his summit presentation on Zocalo.

2 Responses

  1. Hello there,

    So InTrade/TradeSports wants to make money selling its data?

    All the profits they’ll make on this will later be spent in advertising campaigns. I would rather encourage free linking to their data. That would help them getting a high(er) PageRank. Which in turn will help their marketing (for free).

    Two different logics. Two generations.

    Wish you well,


  2. […] I have probably suggested too many times that prediction markets could help remind voters that the most likely outcomes are not those predicted by politicians. […]

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