Post Blogs

WSX06 a loser

Monday, October 31st, 2005

Chris F. Masse .COM takes me to task in an extended comment on my post about the WSX advisory board. In an extended conversation I like to qualify all statements, then qualify my qualifications, driving my partner crazy. I leave most of that out when writing. Equivocation follows. Masse commented:

As for Cass Sunstein, he is a law professor, not an economist —just a detail missing in your upbeat piece. And in his blog entries that you so eagerly point to, he didn’t seem to show any real mastering of the topic. (Cass Sunstein being a friend of your friend Lawrence Lessig, I guess that’s what explains you lack of critical reasoning here —you spare it for your blog entries on Bush #43 and the U.S. military.)

I can only cite economists? You’re correct that Sunstein’s posts this summer at best demonstate that he’s coming from a completely different world. If I recall they prompted lots of virtual head scratching in comments. I expect to have many critical comments about his forthcoming book. For the record I loathe protectionist whiner , another past Lessig guest blogger.

What makes you think that the play-money WSX is going to surpass the long-established TradeSports/InTrade U.S. political prediction markets!????

(You said “could”, OK. Your mother didn’t raise any risk-taking fool.)

Actually my equivocation went much further than “could” — “If the Washington Stock Exchange advisory board is any indication, WSX could displace IEM and Tradesports as the source for quotable market odds for the 2006 US elections. The AB may mean nothing…”

I didn’t spell it out, but I think at best WSX could become the preferred market for the media to quote. As a play-money market it is only a very indirect theat to TradeSports. Still, my post was too uncritical. Thanks for calling me on it.

By the way, Masse now has an RSS feed which I highly recommend subscribing to if you’re interested in the latest news and opinion on prediction markets, along with the occasional rant in the form of a deeply bulleted list. Unfortunately only the last have permalinks.

Mobs and Markets and WSX06

Sunday, October 30th, 2005

If the Washington Stock Exchange advisory board is any indication, WSX could displace IEM and as the source for quotable market odds for the 2006 US elections. The AB may mean nothing, but assembling the names it has demonstrates some foresight on the part of WSX, as does reducing its risk through use of proven open source prediction market software.

is the latest edition to the WSX AB. The WSX blog post announcing the addition notes that Sunstein is working on a book entitled Mobs and Markets: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge.

Though Sunstein’s interest in prediction markets, wikis, the blogosphere and such was obvious in his July guest postings on the Lessig blog, only one page currently indexed by Google is aware of the title of his book: the Cass Sunstein page at Wikipedia. How apropos. It currently (since October 6) says this:

His forthcoming book, Mobs and Markets (Oxford University Press 2006, now in final stages) explores methods for aggregating information; it contains discussions of prediction markets, open source software, and wikis (with substantial attention to Wikipedia).

Blog search stinks

Friday, September 2nd, 2005

A couple weeks ago Jason Kottke posted a complaint about Technorati. Its search results are slow, non-comprehensive, of mediocre relevance, and can’t even manage one nine of reliability. Technorati’s competitors all have the second problem and have or will likely have the others as they grow.

Kevin Burton would prefer blog search to aim lower:

I’d rather have a Technorati that was fast and always worked even if that meant only indexing 1M blogs. Even 500k blogs as long as they are the top 500k blogs.

Sounds like a reasonable tradeoff, but it’s completely unacceptable. What if Google had decided to index only 100M web pages in order to stay fast and reliable? Google would no longer exist. (Also pretend you read something about the of the blogosphere here.)

Only one of thirty trackbacks to Kottke’s post states the obvious:

When I first encountered RSS search engines a few years ago while at Yahoo! I wondered how they could survive. The difficult part of RSS search isn’t the RSS, it’s the search. Search is hard. For Google or Yahoo!, adding RSS to search is trivial. It’s just another data source. And yes, setting up a ping server is different from crawling links, but not any harder and once you get the content, it’s indexed in basically the same fashion. But for Technorati, adding world class relevence, freshness, comprehensiveness and scalability to RSS is an almost insurmountable effort.

(Possibly two, but this one is mostly in Chinese. Google’s beta Chinese-English translation says in part “very many people anticipates Google/Yahoo can provide the even better function.”)

I hope , , , , , et al do well, but my expectation is for one or more of Google, Yahoo!, or Microsoft to introduce a superior blog search service and eventually for blog search to be an anachronism, subsumed by web search (though I want every site and page to have a feed, so web search should become a bit more like blog search). I want to comprehensively track a webversation starting at any URL, and that requires something that can pass for a comprehensive web index.

Here’s a graph from Alexa showing the “reach” of Technorati and (clearly less popular) competitors:

For comparison Alexa says that Google is used by (only?) a little over one in five browsers a day (over 200,000 per million):

EFF15

Monday, August 1st, 2005

The Electronic Frontient Foundation is 15 and wants “to hear about your ‘click moment’–the very first step you took to stand up for your digital rights.

I don’t remember. It musn’t have been a figurative “click moment.” Probably not a literal “click moment” either–I doubt I used a mouse.

A frequent theme of other EFF15 posts seems to be “how I become a copyfighter” or “how I became a digital freedom activist.” I’ve done embarrassingly little (the occasional letter to a government officeholder, Sklyarov protests, the odd mailing list or blog post, running non-infringing P2P nodes, a more often lapsed than not EFF membership), but that’s the tack I’ll take here.

As a free speech absolutist I’ve always found the concept of “digital rights” superfluous. Though knowledge of computers may have helped me understand “the issues,” I needed none to oppose crypto export laws, the clipper chip, CDA, DMCA, perpetual copyright extension and the like. Still, I hold “ditigal rights,” for lack of a better term, near and dear. So how I became a copyfighter of sorts: four “click themes,” one with a “click moment.” All coalesced around 1988-1992, happily matching my college years, which otherwise were a complete waste of time.

First, earliest, and most important, I’d had an ear for “experimental” music since before college. At college I scheduled and skipped classes and missed sleep around WEFT schedule. Nothing was better than great music, and from my perspective, big record companies provided none of it. There was and is more mind-blowingly escastic music made for peanuts than I could hope to experience in many lifetimes. I didn’t have the terms just yet, but it was intuitively obvious that there was no public goods provisioning problem for art, at least not for anything I appreciated, while there was a massive oversupply of abominable anti-art.

Second, somewhere between reading libertarian tracts and studying economics, I hit upon the idea that “intellectual property” may be neither. Those are likely sources anyway–I don’t remember where I first came across the idea. I kept an eye out for confirmation and somewhere, also forgotten, I found a reference to Tom Palmer‘s Intellectual Property: A Non-Posnerian Law and Economics Approach. Finding and reading the article, which describes intellectual property as a state-granted monopoly privilege developed through rent seeking by publishers and non-monopoly means of producing intangible goods, at my university’s law library was my “click moment.”

Third, I saw great promise in the nascent free software movement, and I wanted to run UNIX on my computer. I awaited 386BSD with baited breath and remember when Torvalds announced Linux on Usenet. I prematurely predicted world domination a few times, but regardless, free software was and is the most concrete, compelling and hopeful sign that large scale non-monopoly production of non-rivalrous goods is possible and good, and that the net facilitates such production, and that freedom on the net and free software together render each other more useful, imporant, and defensible.

Fourth, last, and least important, I followed the cypherpunks list for some time, where the ideas of crypto anarchy and BlackNet were developed. In the ten years or so since the net has not turned inside out nor overturned governments and corporations, yet we are very early in its history. Cypherpunk outcomes may remain vaporware indefinitely, but nonetheless are evocative of the transformational potential of the net. I do not know what ends will occur, but I’ll gladly place my bets on, and defend, the means of freedom and decentralization rather than control and protectionism.

The EFF has done an immense amount of great work over the past 15 years. You should join, and I will update my membership. However, my very favorite thing about the EFF is indirect–I’ve seen co-founder and board member John Gilmore at both drug war and DMCA protests. If you care about digital rights or any rights at all and do not understand descruction of individuals, rights, and societies wreaked by the drug war, there’s no time like the present to learn–the first step needed in order to stand up for your rights.


Blog-a-thon tag:

Favorite Peruvian Film

Tuesday, July 26th, 2005

My favorite Peruvian film is La ciudad y los perros, based on Mario Vargas Llosa‘s novel based on his experience in a military school. Netflix has it too.

I say favorite rather than best advisedly, as City and the Dogs may be the only film from Peru I’ve seen. However, it is fantastic. Jaguar and Gamboa are unforgettable and it is at once a political and apolitical and amoral film (if that sounds appealing you must see Ashes and Embers, which also has an incredible soundtrack, perhaps in the vein of Sun Ra’s most avant garde work).

Nothing has a URI, everything is available

Thursday, May 26th, 2005

Chris Masse is an old fashioned (email) networker. Most recently he sent me a couple emails regarding my aside in this post:

Another complaint about HedgeStreet and to a lesser extent TradeSports: lack of easily linkable URLs for contracts. C’mon, it’s the web, get with the program!

Back to that concern in a second. First, I noticed that Chris included me in his list of blogs about prediction markets. I got a kick out of my entry:

Mike Linksvayer’s blog – My opinions only. I do not represent any organization in this publication.

  • Category: Prediction Markets
  • Mike Linksvayer is a developer, consultant and IT manager who is into open source software and public domain—among multiple tech topics.
  • He was recently profiled by one of his former Creative Commons’ colleague.
  • I think of him as a libertarian Democrat (or a Democratic libertarian)—I’m not sure, though.
  • He’s been good to me, but I fear him. The day I’ll miss a piece, he’ll assassinate me—cold blood. (Take a look at how he teared down economist Tyler Cowen.)
  • A Robin Hanson-compatible guy.
  • OUTING: Mike Linksvayer is a TradeSports affiliate.

Not bad. I’m registered to vote as an independent though I wouldn’t be the least bit upset if libertarian Democrats had some success.

Back to my complaint. Chris has a page with links to all(?) TradeSports markets. I was aware of these market URLs, and of URLs for individual contracts (beware: this content will attempt to resize your browser winodw). That’s why I said “to a lesser extent for TradeSports.” However, these URLs are obviously designed without consideration of access other than via the larger TradeSports website. They never appear in your browser’s URL bar, making them a pain to discover and they’re either incomplete or badly behaved.

If the Trade Exchange Network wants to be the authoritative prediction markets maker (interesting that they’re seeking to be a CFTC regulated exchange) one tiny step would be to make it easy for people to link to them. Better yet each market and contract would have a feed. Even better yet, an API for accessing market data and generating custom charts. In other words, take several cues from Amazon, eBay, and many others.

Apologies to Hassan i Sabbah’s legend.

Individual Rights Central Railroad

Tuesday, April 19th, 2005

Apparently security good guy Bruce Schneier is behind this:

Today, the rights of individuals are being eroded: by government, by corporations, by society itself. This icon — the Individual-i — represents the rights of the individual.

It represents the right to privacy and anonymity in the information age. It represents the rights to an open government, due process, and equal protection under the law. It represents the right to live surveillance free, and not to be marked as “suspicious” for wanting these other rights.

It recognizes that a free society is a safe society, and that freedom is founded upon individual rights.

The battle for individual rights is just beginning; our side needs a symbol.

We hope to see this symbol displayed proudly wherever individual rights are valued.

The Individual-i symbol is not owned by any organization. There is no platform, no organizational structure, no meetings. This symbol is in the public domain: uncopyrighted, untrademarked, unowned. Anyone can use it for any purpose.

Sounds good to me.

The symbol reminds me of something from my childhood: the Illinois Central Railroad logo used 1967-1972 by the railroad and in the mid-seventies by my father’s model railroad.

I’m not going to suggest remixing other old Illinois Central logos along an individual rights theme.

BlogPulse Conversation Tracker

Tuesday, March 29th, 2005

BlogPulse Conversation Tracker comes closer to fulfilling my wish for a blogversation interface than anything I’ve seen before. Missing: ability to see presence of a blogthread outside the context of the conversation tracker.

I built a similar tool on top of Technorati’s API: DeepCosmos. It’s slower (was last night and ought to be; BlogPulse must be getting a flood of traffic now) than BlogPulse as it must recursively query Technorati and is harder to use as it requires obtaining a Technorati API key.

BlogPulse queries matching the two examples I gave in my DeepCosmos post:

I’m not exactly sure when BlogPulse launched its conversation tracker, but it’s getting lots of attention since the release of BlogPulse 2.0 yesterday. Technorati, PubSub, Feedster, et al: BlogPulse just raised the bar several notches. Do or die.

[Via Danny Ayers.]

Technorati DeepCosmos

Saturday, March 5th, 2005

Late last year I requested that some blog aggregator give some indication of the existence of indirect blog post citations, i.e., a blog thread. Adam Hertz suggested that this could be done using Technorati’s API.

I whipped up a crummy implementation the following weekend and contributed a small technorati.py patch along the way. I decided I’m not getting around to producing a non-crummy version, so here it is:

If you attempt to use the DeepCosmos demo the first thing to note is that you need to obtain and use your own Technorati API Key. Check out the examples above if you just want to see what the output looks like.

I haven’t used this much since I wrote it. My request still stands. I’d use the information all the time if integrated into the output of Technorati, Bloglines, Rojo or similar.

CodeCon Saturday

Sunday, February 13th, 2005

CodeCon is 5/5 today.

The Ultra Gleeper. A personal web page recommendation system. Promise of collaborative filtering unfulfilled, in dark ages since Firefly was acquired and shut down in the mid-90s. Presenter believes we’re about to experience a renaissance in recommendation systems, citing Audiocrobbler recommendations (I would link to mine, but personal recommendations seem to have disappeared since last time I looked; my audioscrobbler page) as a useful example (I have found no automated music recommendation system useful) and blogs as a use case for recommendations (I have far too much very high quality manually discovered reading material, including blogs, to desire automated recommendations for more and I don’t see collaborative filtering as a useful means of prioritizing my lists). The Ultra Gleeper crawls pages you link to, treating links as positive ratings, pages that link to you (via Technorati CosmosQuery and Google API), presents suggested pages to rate in a web interface. Uses a number of tricks to avoid showing obvious recommendations (does not recommend pages that are two popular) and pages you’ve already seen (including those linked to in feeds you subscribe to). Some problems faced by typical recommendation systems (new users get crummy recommendations until they enter lots of data, early adopters get doubly crummy recommendations due to lack of existing data to correlate with) obviated by bootstrapping from data in your posts and subscriptions. I suppose if lots of people run something like Gleeper robot traffic increases, more people complain about syndication bandwidth-like problems (I’m skeptical about this being a major problem). I don’t see lots of people running Gleepers as automated recommendation systems are still fairly useless and will remain so for a long time. Interesting software and presentation nonetheless.

H2O. Primarily a discussion system tuned to facilitate professor-assigned discussions. Posts may be embargoed and professor may assign course participants specific messages or other participants to respond to. Discussions may include participants from multiple courses, e.g., to facilitate a MIT engineering-Harvard law exchange. Anyone may register at H2O and create own group, acting as professor for created group. Some of the constraints that may be iposed by H2O are often raised in mailing list meta discussions following flame wars, in particular posting delays. I dislike web forums but may have to try H2O out. Another aspect of H2O is syllabus management and sharing, which is interesting largely because syllabi are typically well hidden. Professors in the same school of the same university may not be aware of what each other are teaching.

Jakarta Feedparser. Kevin Burton gave a good overview of syndication and related standards and the many challenges of dealing with feeds in the wild, which are broken in every conceivable way. Claims SAX (event) based Jakarta FeedParser is an order of magnitude faster than DOM (tree) based parsers. Nothing new to me, but very useful code.

MAPPR. Uses Flickr tags, GNS to divine geographic location of photos. REST web services modeled on Flickr’s own. Flash front end, which you could spend many hours playing with.

Photospace. Personal image annotation and search service, focus on geolocation. Functionality available as library, web fron end provided. Photospace publishes RDF which may be consumed by RDFMapper.

Note above two personal web applications that crawl or use services of other sites (The Ultra Gleeper is the stronger example of this). I bet we’ll see many more of increasing sophistication enabled by ready and easily deployable software infrastructure like Jakarta FeedParser, Lucene, SQLite and many others. A personal social networking application is an obvious candidate. Add in user hosted or controlled authentication (e.g., LID, perhaps idcommons) …

Yesterday.