Post Open Source

Prediction Markets Summit extract of an extract

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

I sadly could not attend last Friday’s mini-conference in San Francisco on prediction markets, but Peter McCluskey has an informative write up.

Apparently Tradesports explained why it makes it a pain to link to its contracts. They want to sell access to the data. I don’t see easy linking and data sales as mutually exclusive, but Tradesports’ current practice doesn’t help it win bigger opportunities (becoming the dominant PM exchange).

A Microsoft representative promoted the use of open source licenses. (Indirectly.)

An implication that real money traders did consider the Bush re-election good for terrorist stock:

[Eric Zitzewitz] showed an amusing graph indicating that Tradesports prices implied Osama was twice as likely to be captured in October 2004 as in November 2004 (implying some connection with the U.S. elections).

With conditional futures voters could’ve been informed of that collective opinion before the election.

Go read McCluskey’s comments, replete with links.

Chris Hibbert is also blogging his summit presentation on Zocalo.

Redefining light and dark

Monday, November 28th, 2005

The wily Lucas Gonze is at it again, defining ‘lightnet’ and ‘darknet’ by example, without explanation. The explanation is so simple that it probably only subtracts from Gonze’s [re]definition, but I’ll play the fool anyhow.

Usually darknet refers to (largely unstoppable) friend-to-friend information sharing. As the name implies, a darknet is underground, or at least under the radar of those who want to prohibit certain kinds of information sharing. (A BlackNet doesn’t require friends and the radar doesn’t work, to horribly abuse that analogy.)

Lightnet, as far as I know, is undefined in this context.*

Anyway, Lucas’ definition-by-example lumps prohibited sharing (friend to friend as well as over filesharing networks) and together as Darknet. Such content is dark to the web. It can’t be linked to, or if it can be, the link will be to a name,** not a location, thus you may not be able to obtain the content (filesharing), or you won’t be able to view the content (DRM).

Lightnet contnet is light to the web. It can be linked to, retrieved, and viewed in the ways you expect (and by extension, searched for in the way you expect), no law breaking or bad law making required.

* Ross Mayfield called iTunes a lightnet back in 2003. Lucas includes iTunes on the dark side. I agree with Lucas’ categorization, though Ross had a good point, and in a slightly different way was contrasting iTunes with both darknets and hidebound content owners.

** Among other things, I like to think of magnet links and as attempting to bridge the gap between the web and otherwise shared content. Obviously that work is unfinished. As is making multimedia work on the web. I think that’s the last time I linked to Lucas Gonze, but he’s had plently of crafty posts between then and now that I highly recommend following.

WUXGA LCD stretch

Monday, November 21st, 2005

I’ve been needing a notebook refresh for awhile and was planning to get a HP dv1000 (1280×768 display, ~5.2 pounds, under $1000, good Linux compatibility, and Nathan seemed to like his similar model).

Then I realized that I could get a laptop with a 1920×1200 () display. I had to have one. I missed the 1600×1200 21″ CRT I used for years and there’s reasonable sounding research that more screen is an easy productivity boost.

I bought a Dell Inspiron 6000 (my first choice was a Dell Latitude D810, for its , but I couldn’t justify a several hundred dollar premimum for an otherwise similarly equipped machine).

A number of people told me that 1920×1200 on a 15 inch widescreen would be impossible to read. Not true at all. Some people also told me that a nearly 7 pound laptop would be a major drag. So far it hasn’t been. Apart from a tiny Inspiron 2100 I used temporarily for several months this one is about the weight I’m accustomed to (and I walk or bicycle 5 to 15 miles on days I don’t telecommute–I vastly prefer this to “working out”).

I think the large monitor productivity study is right. I feel more productive than I have since giving up my desktop and 21″ CRT. If you spend most of the day doing “knowledge work” in front of a computer, especially programming, get yourself a super high resolution display pronto.

I encountered a couple of oddities regarding the WUXGA display after installing Ubuntu Linux on the new machine.

First, Ubuntu’s installer correctly detected the 1920×1200 display and Intel 915 (GMA900) graphics. The generated /etc/X11/xorg.conf only had modelines for 1920×1200. However, the driver was unaware of the 915’s support for 1920×1200, so ran at 1600×1200. I’m surprised it ran at all, given that xorg.conf contained no configuration for that resolution.

The other odd thing is that the entire screen was used to display 1600×1200 pixels–everything was stretched horizontally by 20 percent. I would’ve strongly expected 1600×1200 running on a 1920×1200 LCD screen to not use the screen’s full width–320 horizontal pixels should’ve been unused. Every description of screens that I’ve (very casually) read says something about each (discrete) pixel being controlled by an individual transistor. There’s no tweaking display size or orienting the display with an LCD like there is with a CRT. My uneducated guess is that X was using or some similar method to stretch 1600 virtual pixels onto 1920 real pixels. [Update 20051122: As Brian suggests in a comment below the stretching is done by hardware and controlled by BIOS settings–“LCD Panel Expansion” on the Inspiron 6000, enabled by default.]

The problem was fixed by running 915resolution, following this example:

  • Download 915resolution
  • make install (or just copy the binary provided)
  • Create /etc/init.d/rc.local with a single line:

    /usr/sbin/915resolution 49 1920 1200

  • sudo chmod +x /etc/init.d/rc.local
  • sudo update-rc.d rc.local start 80 S .

After rebooting X ran beautifully at 1920×1200.

Mobs and Markets and WSX06

Sunday, October 30th, 2005

If the Washington Stock Exchange advisory board is any indication, WSX could displace IEM and as the source for quotable market odds for the 2006 US elections. The AB may mean nothing, but assembling the names it has demonstrates some foresight on the part of WSX, as does reducing its risk through use of proven open source prediction market software.

is the latest edition to the WSX AB. The WSX blog post announcing the addition notes that Sunstein is working on a book entitled Mobs and Markets: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge.

Though Sunstein’s interest in prediction markets, wikis, the blogosphere and such was obvious in his July guest postings on the Lessig blog, only one page currently indexed by Google is aware of the title of his book: the Cass Sunstein page at Wikipedia. How apropos. It currently (since October 6) says this:

His forthcoming book, Mobs and Markets (Oxford University Press 2006, now in final stages) explores methods for aggregating information; it contains discussions of prediction markets, open source software, and wikis (with substantial attention to Wikipedia).

Ubuntu Linux 5.10

Monday, October 24th, 2005

I upgraded my laptop to 5.10 from 5.04 over the weekend. It was as simple as changing ‘hoary’ to ‘breezy’ (I dislike codenames–version numbers are so much more immediately comprehensible, but whatever) in /etc/apt/sources.list, running two commands, and waiting for a couple of hours while new packages were downloaded and installed. There should be a GUI for distribution upgrade. One may exist–I didn’t look.

Everything still works, with no post-upgrade manual fixing needed. seems a little better behaved, and I’m now running the current version (2.4.1) so have little excuse for not filing bugs.

The most noticable change is Evince as the default PDF viewer. Evince feels much faster than xpdf or AcroRead. I’m guessing that Evince is used to render PDF thumbnails on the desktop, a nice touch.

I’m happy to see Ubuntu become a juggernaut, which helps address one of Asa Dotzler’s well thought out essays on why Linux is still not ready for mass desktop adoption:

[T]there needs to be a lot more cross-distro compatibility or a lot fewer distros. This will make it much easier for software vendors to target the Linux platform and will make it much easier for Regular People to “shop around” for software.

I would modify that slightly: there needs to be one desktop distribution that people can install and vendors support without thinking (there will always be thousands of niche distributions).

Now if rent-a-dedicated-server businesses would start offering Ubuntu Server I’d be rather happy.

Imagine a one-year usufruct

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

It warms my heart to see a column titled Imagine a world without copyright in the International Herald-Tribune, but I’m afraid Joost Smiers and Marieke van Schijndel imagine too much from such a world:

What is interesting about this approach is that this proposal strikes a fatal blow to a few cultural monopolists who, aided by copyright, use their stars, blockbusters and bestsellers to monopolize the market and siphon off attention from every other artistic work produced by artists. That is problematic in our society in which we have a great need for that pluriformity of artistic expression.

I have great sympathy with this hope, indeed it is one of the things that first interested me in copyright. There is some very imperfect evidence from China that without copyright mass culture will still be star-driven and repulsive.

The authors also do not describe a world completely without copyright, offering creators a one-year exclusive right to exploit new works commercially (a one-year usufruct as they say) where the work demands sizeable initial investments. An unfortunate proposal: to protectionists, a ridicuously constrained mononpoly, but one that undermines the authors’ vision. Better to use the paragraph to mention ideas for financing of artistic works that do not require monopoly privilege. Or to mention peer production, open source, or free software, which they do not.

Ubuntu Linux

Saturday, September 10th, 2005

5.10 is due shortly, so some very uncareful observations on 5.04 (version numbers are date-based, releases come every six months) before they become super stale:

Network installation from Windows was almost trivial, though InstallUbuntu.exe would be welcome. The only non-trivial part was partition resizing. I’m completely comfortable setting up partitions (e.g., with fdisk), but based only on installer feedback, I was not certain it would attempt to resize a Windows partition, so I backed out and resized before installing.

I was very happy to find that the display, sound, ethernet, wifi, and hibernate (suspend-to-disk) all worked with no manual configuration, a minor miracle based on past experience. However, this is on a three year old computer (Dell Inspiron 2100). (Sleep/suspend-to-memory didn’t work under Windows 2000 and I haven’t tried fixing it under either OS.)

The most annoying thing about Ubuntu Linux is having to semi-manually install proprietary code for Flash and various media codecs. However, ubuntuguide.org provides exact steps (usually only a few) for installing any of these. Overall I consider this an improvement over the multimedia situation on Windows, where Windows Media Player gives uniformaitve messages about missing codecs and one is often reduced to downloading codec installers from completely untrusted websites. (The most annoying thing about installing an OS, including Windows, is usually getting all of the hardware recognized and working, so I’m happy that proprietary codecs were the biggest annoyance, but here’s to open formats anyway.)

The only other real annoyance is that I don’t like the 2.2.1.1 mail/groupware client as much as I hoped (I used it as my primary mail client around 2001-3 and missed it), perhaps because I didn’t use it with IMAP previously. Evolution has no mechanism for switching to offline mode immediately,and occasionally can take many minutes to go offline. Furthermore, Evolution often gets confused when going back online, (perhaps) particularly after awakening from hibernation or switching networks, requiring closing the program, which can take several minutes in its confused state, and relaunch. Thunderbird allows one to go offline without syncing folders and never gets confused when going back online. I may switch back to Thunderbird, though I’d miss Evolution’s vFolders and calendar support.

I’m really looking forward to Ubuntu Linux 5.10, though the real test will be installation on a newer laptop.

Three open source prediction market software options

Monday, August 29th, 2005

In May there were none.

The software that has run Foresight Exchange for many years (and soon a political market) was open sourced today (under an odd license).

Zocalo had a new release last week.

FreeMarket seems to have been available for a little over a month.

For the heck of it, compare the one item represented by claims on both FX and FreeMarket’s demo: Gas$3 and $3 for a gallon of gas respectively. The FX claim is trading lower (about 30 versus about 35) even though for it to pay off gas must reach $3 by 2005-12-26 while the FreeMarket demo claim pays if gas reaches $3 by 2006-08-18.

FX is still the only site with remotely interesting claims. Hopefully all these packages will directly support conditional claims one day soon (Zocalo has plans) and the sites that use them will get more interesting as a result.

Update 20050830: The first sentence above is wrong. Chris Masse’s list reminded me of Peter McCluskey‘s U.S. Idea Futures Market from 1999 (I didn’t realize until now that the source has been available). Check out USIFEX’s excellent FAQ on What are conditional claims and how do they work?

Lucene red handed

Thursday, August 25th, 2005

A review of Lucene in Action posted on Slashdot yesterday reminded me to make this post. I read the book in March shortly before giving a related talk at Etech in order to avoid sounding too stupid.

Lucene in Action is very well written. I liked the presentation of code samples as and found almost no fluff. If you don’t have a background in (I don’t) I think you’ll enjoy this book for the background information on IR that is thoroughly integrated with the text even if you have no plans to use (though you’ll obtain an itch to use Lucene, it’s so simple and powerful).

One non-technical comment I made about Lucene in the Etech talk is that it may be another open source . As eliminated much of the opportunity to sell HTTP servers, I suspect Lucene will eliminate much of the opportunity to sell embedded search libraries (which seems somewhat significant judging by the quantity of ads for same in programming magazines).

Free Culture needs Free Software

Friday, August 12th, 2005

Fred von Lohmann explains Why Would MS Do Hollywood’s Bidding?:

In sum, it’s classical economics — on one side you have a supplier cartel with market power (Hollywood), on the other side you have several competing technology platform providers (Microsoft, the major CE companies, etc) each eager to get picked by the cartel (and thereby gain competitive advantage over those not picked).

Unmentioned, there is a technology platform (broadly speaking) that is incapable of doing the intellectual protectionist lobby’s bidding: free software.

Fred says “consumers will inevitably lose.” Not if we demand free software.

Get started with Firefox and OpenOffice right now.