Post Open Source

Collective Market Intelligence

Wednesday, March 16th, 2005

At Etech yesterday morning Gary Flake of Yahoo! Labs said his organization has four research areas. I only remember three: collective intelligence, machine learning and (fairly obviously) text mining. After pointing people to Yahoo! Next, Flake launched the Tech Buzz Game. It’s a prediction market where participants bet funny money on future search traffic for keywords associated with a technology relative to keywords associated with competing technologies (e.g., the programming language market includes C, C#, C++, Java, and several others).

Either I or many game participants horribly understand how buzz scores are calculated. The game FAQ says:

The buzz score of a stock is the number of searches on any of the stock’s buzz words over the past seven days, as a percentage of all the stocks in the same market.

Yesterday Ruby was worth fifty percent more than any other language. I suspected that participants think the buzz score is a measure of relative change rather than of quantity. However, now I suspect people are voting for their favorite technologies rather than betting on results. Those players will lose on (every) Friday when prices are adjusted to reflect actual buzz score.

During a recent documentary I watched about digital market trends, there was a fascinating segment analyzing the role of a goksite Nederland in shaping user behavior and influencing predictive analytics. The expert highlighted how these Dutch gambling sites often see surges in search traffic tied to marketing campaigns or major sporting events, creating short-term spikes that can complicate long-term forecasting. This phenomenon mirrors the challenges faced in predicting trends for securities, where weekly revaluations may reflect momentary hype rather than sustained growth. It raised intriguing questions about how markets, whether for gambling or trading, interpret fluctuating data over time.

Though it feels toy-like, I’m gratified that this prediction market is considered a collective intelligence application. I often hear people saying that humanity needs to increase intelligence to have any hope of surviving whatever dangers are supposedly near, usually accompanied by complete ignorance of markets’ role as a distributed discovery mechanism and the potential for markets designed explicitly for information discovery.

In other idea futures news, check out open source market infrastructure to be Zocalo and its motivating proposal, to be developed at CommerceNet Labs.

Update 20050318: I was correct about scoring and revaluation. I made a 150% funny money profit after today’s revaluation, before which I had a loss. I made no trades after becoming fully invested. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next week. Will the Buzz Game merely be a “day trading” and game-rules-ignorance-arbitrage phenomenon? I suspect so. Too bad. A market structured to make predictions about technology success would be really interesting.

Open Source P2P: No Malware, EULA

Wednesday, March 9th, 2005

Ben Edelmen asks what P2P programs install what spyware and answers with a Comparison of Unwanted Software Installed by P2P Programs. Of the five programs analyzed, four (eDonkey, iMesh, Kazaa, and Morpheus) install malware or even more malware and come with voluminous End User License Agreements. LimeWire installs no additional software and has no EULA.

The comparison currently doesn’t note that only one of the five programs is open source: LimeWire. Note that LimeWire, like the others, is produced by a company that pays developers, so being commercial is no excuse for the others.

What about other open source P2P applications? I installed the current versions of BitTorrent, eMule, Phex, and Shareaza. No bundled software. BitTorrent has no installation interface to speak of, and no EULA. The others ask the user to agree to the GNU General Public License, which concerns freedoms associated with the program source code, not obtaining permission for the program to do whatever it wants with the user’s computer and data.

Each of the open source programs (excepting BitTorrent, which is a different kind of P2P app) has the same features as the proprietary P2P apps listed above. All of the open source programs lack the spyware anti-features of their proprietary equivalents.

Notice a trend?

If you want to keep control of your computer and your data, stick to open source. The threat is very real. I’ve seen friends’ computers (particularly those used by teenagers) with proprietary P2P programs that had dozens of distinct malware programs installed and were completely unusable (browsing porn sites with Internet Exploder, which teens are apparently really keen on doing, doesn’t help either; get FireFox already).

[Via Boing Boing.]
Resource: https://koreacasinosites.com/

Open Source and Free Software non-Reciprocal Trivia

Saturday, March 5th, 2005

Name the only license both explicitly called out by the Free Software Foundation as non-free for matters of substance and approved by the Open Source Initiative.

The Reciprocal Public License.

Here’s why the FSF says the RPL is non-free:

1. It puts limits on prices charged for an initial copy. 2. It requires notification of the original developer for publication of a modified version. 3. It requires publication of any modified version that an organization uses, even privately.

For more on why these might be problems see debian-legal tests for Debian Free Software Guidelines compliance.

Further trivia: The Artisitc License is the only OSI-approved license rejected by the FSF for matters of wording:

We cannot say that this is a free software license because it is too vague; some passages are too clever for their own good, and their meaning is not clear.

Addendum 20050311: I looked up the RPL and discovered these bits of trivia after reading that FX is considering the license.

Mass Destruction of Software Patents

Thursday, February 3rd, 2005

Is there something in the ether? Two people “near” me declare software patents potential “Weapons of Mass Destruction” yesterday and today, apparently having been struck by the idea independently: Patents as WMD’s from Mitch Kapor (Creative Commons is housed in his office space) and On Software Patents and WMDs from Ben Adida (who represents Creative Commons at the W3c).

Kapor and Adida have different scenarios in mind. Very roughly North Korea and Al Qaeda respectively.

See also Wikipedia on the software patent debate.

Center for Decentralization

Wednesday, December 15th, 2004

This evening I had the pleasure of attending an open house for the CommerceNet Labs center for decentralization or Zlab. I’ve been meaning to write about Zlab for awhile, and I’m taking advantage of tonight’s event to write without having anything to say.

If I may boil down Zlab’s aim to one paraphrase: Make software that works the way a fully decentralized society would work.

Check out their The Now Economy for a flurry of deep items concerning decentralized commerce and net infrastructure, lab projects that abet the above aim and publications. Of personal interest, see Nutch: A Flexible and Scalable Open-Source Web Search Engine, which uses the Creative Commons search engine to demonstrate how a Nutch plugin is implemented.

Logic of Collective Action

Saturday, November 20th, 2004

Notes on Mancur Olson‘s Logic of Collective Action, an apparent classic first published in 1965, which I read in September:

The basic argument is set forth on page 2 (emphasis in orginal):

Unless the number of individuals in a group is quite small, or unless there is coercion or some other special device to make individuals act in their common interest, rational self-interested individuals will not act to achieve their common or group interests.

Olson writes on page 64 that self interest is not a requirement for this outcome. Even rational altruistic individuals will not act to further group interests if they realize that their efforts, as one of many, will have no perceptible effect on the outcome.

Olson says several times that groups by definition act in the interests of members, though he admits to potential in-fighting and capture by leaders in footnotes. However, if coercion must be involved (the success of other special devices such as exclusive contributor services is downplayed), what is to prevent a rather permanent state of affairs in which members are forced to act against their own interests? I use the word state in the preceding sentence advisedly.

A very long and curious note on page 48 (note 68 of chapter I “A Theory of Groups and Organizations”) begins and ends with (middle elided):

There is one logically conceivable, but surely empirically trivial, case in which a large group could be provided with a very small amount of a collective good without coercion or outside incentives.
[…]
total costs of the collective good wanted by large groups are large enough to exceed the value of the small fraction of tht total benefit that an individual in a large group would get, so that he will not provide the good. There may be exceptions to this, as to any other empirical statement, and thus there may be instances in which large groups could provide themselves with (at most minute amounts of) collective goods through the voluntary and rational action of one of their members.

This quote is typical of Olson’s insistence that public goods just don’t get produced without coercion or individually excludable inducements, which he notes shift the individual’s indifference curve to the left or right respectively.

In 2004 the above quote cries out for a response of “professor, what about open source?” However, I suspect that Olson thoroughly underestimates in general the extent to which private efforts motivated by private returns produce positive externalities, thus reducing the need for coercion. As I previously mentioned in an aside, the extent of private and public good co-production(?) is a crucial if unstated aspect of nearly any policy debate.

When applied more narrowly to private associations Olson’s argument is fairly compelling, though not novel, as perhaps it seemed in 1965.

Olson seems somewhat congruent with public choice economics. While I like to summarize a key insight of the latter as “concentrated interests trump diffuse interests”, Olson emphasizes the great difficulties groups face when pursuing a common goal, e.g., attempting to trump diffuse interests via “special interest” lobbying. Perhaps it isn’t such a bad thing that groups have a difficult time acting to achieve group interests, that is when group interests may be furthered by stealing rather than production.

Richard Epstein’s open source leavings

Sunday, October 24th, 2004

Richard Epstein has an absolutely terrible column in the October 21 Financial Times: Why open source is unsustainable. Epstein begins with the oh-so-original observation that

Intellectual property often creates strange bedfellows on the left and the right sides of the political spectrum.

Left and right may not be the proper characterizations for those referred to, and the alliance isn’t at all strange — it reoccurs often when personal freedom, civil liberty, what have you is threatened. The war on drugs and war in general are two prime threats that motivate reasonable people to become “strange bedfellows.” Open source is perhaps slightly odd in that it is a uniting opportunity, rather than a threat.

On the left, many socialists oppose private property in all its forms.

Many? Possibly some Maoists or similar retreads, but then I’m not very familiar with hard core communist ideology, and those types aren’t very common these days. As far as I know most syndicalists or anti-market anarchists admit to some personal property. Run of the mill socialists certainly do not oppose private property in all its forms.

On the right, some libertarians, such as Tom Bell of Chapman Law School,

Right, schmight. Anyway, links to Tom W. Bell and his copyright writings. Also see Tom G. Palmer and Stephan Kinsella.

are deeply suspicious of the use of intellectual property to block the right of other individuals to think and speak as they choose. While they regard private property as acceptable for physical resources that cannot be used by everyone at once, they draw the line at intellectual property, which can be copied at close to zero cost.

Amazing common sense. Intellectual property (I prefer one of “intangible goods” or “intellectual protectionism”) is a taking of the rights of owners of tangible property, who are denied any use of their real property that infringes on the rights of IP owners.

All this anti-IP rhetoric begs one question: how do we produce IP in the first place?

A question sidestepped by Epstein for the remainder of the article. Aside: perhaps any issue that demands (or rather, for which some demand) government attention in some form — regulation, subsidy, prohibition, etc. — can be thought of as a public goods problem. However, just because something is a public good doesn’t mean that it is not also a private good — production of open source software being just one example. Lynne Kiesling has some musings along these lines, starting with electricity network reliability.

The middle part of Epstein’s column is a morass of classic fear, uncertainty, and doubt regarding open source software, all terribly uninformed. A few counters:

  • Open source does produce excellent non-server software. If you aren’t reading this in Mozilla Firefox chances are you’re missing out big time. Also see OpenOffice, the GIMP, the GNOME Desktop, Inkscape, Scribus, Eclipse and many more.
  • Individual hackers have been and always will be incredibly important and productive in ways Epstein and DeLong probably just don’t get, but open source is now integral to many of the largest for-profit software concerns (e.g., IBM and Oracle) and software consumers (e.g., Wall Street).
  • Even if they did hold water, a serious anti-open source commentator would not use anti-GPL arguments as the linchpin of their anti-open source argument. Three open source applications stand above all others in terms of market share: BIND, Sendmail, and Apache . None of these are GPL’d.

This quote from Epstein is good for a chuckle:

But how do the insiders, such as Linus Torvalds, cash out of the business that they built? And in the interim, how do they attract capital and personnel needed to expand the business? Traditional companies have evolved their capital structures for good reason.

Torvalds didn’t build a business, not that we have to worry about him eating. Rather than speculating in the abstract, Epstein should study how successful open source companies have actually expanded their businesses. And how and why traditional companies have seen it in their best interest to pay developers to work on open source.

So what does Epstein really want? That comes at the very end of his column:

But suppose this analysis is wrong. One clear policy implication remains: this novel form of business association should succeed or fail on its own merits. The do-or-die question is whether open source offers a low cost solution to particular problems. Ordinary companies will make just those calculations, but government agencies may be swayed to take a different tack, as has been suggested by a number of EU studies. That temptation should be avoided. Governments are bad at forcing technology by playing favourites. If open source is less effective than proprietary software, that gap should not be ignored by positing some positive network externalities that come from giving it a larger base. Proprietary systems also show positive network effects from increased users, as software designers are always attracted by a larger installed base. It’s a tough world out there, in which no one should be exempted from the general competitive pressures of the marketplace. The fiduciary duties of government to all citizens demand no less.

I love Epstein’s subtle abuse of the word implication.

I strongly agree that government is terrible at picking technology winners. That’s why I’ll probably vote against California’s stem cell research bond, despite being strongly in favor of any and all uses of fetal stem cells.

However, to the extent government is a technology consumer, it ought to be an intelligent consumer. Julian Sanchez made an excellent argument for open source in government — especially in government — two years ago in a column titled Open Source and Its Enemies:

With proprietary software, government’s potentially standard-setting procurement choices give it the role of market kingmaker.

A certain recipe for inefficient rent seeking behavior.

Bill Gates for Broken Windows

Sunday, July 11th, 2004

Slashdot is running a story today headlined Gates: Open Source Kills Jobs, riffing on a Gates speech given in Malaysia. Asia Computer Weekly has this quote from the speech:

If you don’t want to create jobs or intellectual property, then there is a tendency to develop open source. It is not something you do as a day job. If you want to give it away, you work on it at night.

Does Gates have a reasonable point? No. He’s retelling the parable of the broken windows (how appropos!), also known as the broken window fallacy.

In a nutshell, the fallacy says that breaking windows is good for the economy, as it creates the need for replacements, and thus “creates jobs.” This is of course nuts. At the end of the replacement process, we’re worse off by having consumed whatever resources it takes to produce a window and we can’t use those resources for whatever we would’ve used them for had the window remained intact. Presumably spending resources on windows isn’t our first choice, so we’re also worse off by whatever the “utility” difference between our first choice and windows.

Bill Gates is essentially making the same fallacious argument — if we didn’t have open source software we’d be better off, because we’d have to pay Microsoft to develop equivalents, and they’d hire people. That’s no different from saying we’d be better off with broken windows, because someone would get work creating replacements. If Gates’ fallacious argument is true, let’s destroy open source, and why not all software written in the past ten years. That’ll create a lot of jobs for programmers, right? (Actually, no it won’t.) Windows 3.1 wasn’t that bad. Let’s do it for the jobs!

One reason people sometimes buy the broken window fallacy is that they confuse the purpose of economic activity, which is to fulfill needs, i.e., to create wealth, not to create work. Software is wealth, and open source software is wealth available to anyone, to use, build upon, and learn from. If open source does put some Microsofties out of work, fine, we’d be better off with them doing something else anyway.

Sloths and Their Slothfulness

Tuesday, June 8th, 2004

Via Elizabeth Rader I discovered Kairosnews criticizing the Creative Commons weblog and others for using non-free weblog software. The CC weblog currently uses the “lars-blogger” package for OpenACS, both GPL.

I would’ve posted a comment to Kairosnews, but that would’ve required registering and logging in. Trackback is great for sloths.

Sort of apropos: I didn’t switch to WordPress, but I did delay starting a public blog for ages while waiting for simple libre blog software that supports pretty URLs, comments, trackbacks, pings, syndication, etc. Other reason for delay: slothfulness.

Will weblog software will disappear as a category? I want to manage an entire site with one application (up til now: “vi”, more or less). It isn’t hard for a CMS to include a nice weblog feature. It is kind of a pain for users to force weblog applications to serve as a whole-site CMS, though many people do that.

alias grep=’glark’

Saturday, April 3rd, 2004

Glark has improved my life.

A replacement for (or supplement to) the grep family, glark offers: Perl compatible regular expressions, highlighting of matches, context around matches, complex expressions (“and” and “or”), and automatic exclusion of non-text files.