Post Peeves

How to not reach critical mass

Thursday, September 29th, 2005

Kathleen Pender writes about Hedgestreet in today’s San Francisco Chronicle:

It’s not practical yet, but if and when it reaches critical mass, consumers could use it to hedge their financial risks the same way companies use the futures markets to protect themselves against adverse price swings.

Because of their short maturities, Hedgelets are not yet useful for making long-term bets on housing. As volume grows, HedgeStreet plans to add more cities and longer-dated contracts.

Why not offer useful hedgelets first and as volume grows experiment with less practical contracts (if at all)? Perhaps HedgeStreet considers itself in beta and wants to avoid taking off until the appointed time. Seems crazy to me.

Another crazy thing: making your product unlinkable.

Fusion vs. eclecticism

Friday, September 23rd, 2005

I usually run away screaming when I hear a description including the word “fusion”, e.g., of food or music. I’ve never heard that word applied to the ‘s eclectic works, though their ability to fuse the string quartet with other forms is nearly foolproof. Yesterday’s performance with Bollywood singer and (Chinese lute) player was a case in point.

Terry Riley‘s The Cusp of Magic filled the first half of the concert. Judging by that performance only, one would have to believe that a pipa/violin/violin/viola/cello quintet was a standard arrangement. Wu Man played beautifully and in unity with Kronos, never triggering an annoying thought of “oh, now we hear the ‘eastern’ bit.”

The second half, featuring songs by performed by Asha Boshle, Kronos, Wu Man, and Debopriyo Sarkar on tabla, was equally successful, with the musicians ably replacing an entire orchestra. A few seconds after Boshle started singing Nihcole whispered to me that “she’s the one we hear in all those films.” I haven’t really seen all that much Bollywood, but it’s true, her voice is immediately familiar. Supposedly she has recorded 20,000 songs in her sixty year career. That’s almost one song every single day for six decades. Hard to believe. She looks and sounds nothing like 72.

Each time I hear Kronos perform I am happy, both because I love their music and they make me feel a bit sentimental. The first musical event I ever attended of my own accord was their early 1989 performance at the Krannert Center, where I believe they played Riley’s In C, ‘s Cat O’ Nine Tails and Jimi Hendrix’s Purple Haze. When I finally bought a CD player, also in 1989, Kronos’ Winter Was Hard was one of my first discs (I bought the Pixies’ Surfer Rosa/Come On Pilgrim and Bongwater’s Double Bummer+ at the same time).

Other reviews at SFist and memestream.

So, why does fusion denote abomination and electicism beauty?

Open immigration to destroy capitalism!

Saturday, September 10th, 2005

Comments on a depressing must-read Katrina aftermath account went far afield, including a suggestion to leave the U.S., which among others prompted Anna Feruglio Dal Dan to comment:

Moving is not easy in this wonderful globalized society where barriers and stuff like that have to be taken out for the sake of the Market. The system depends on not letting people move around freely across borders.

I wonder about such things, so I had to ask:

How do you figure the market system depends on not letting people move? If people were free to move across borders would you expect the market system to crumble? Why?

Anna responded:

Because it would mean that a whole bunch of people who are paid a pittance in Rumania to make cheap bras would move to the UK to make them there for a helluva lot of more money. End of cheap labor. Collapse of affluent societies under the strain of immigration. Nobody left to buy the bras.

So I gather the argument is roughly as follows:

  1. Markets and/or affluence requires “cheap” labor (remember cheapness is always relative)
  2. By virtue of moving to affluent countries labor that was cheap will be expensive
  3. No more cheap goods due to lack of cheap labor
  4. Affluent societies collapse

I see one non-sequitur after another. However, if I thought affluence primarily results from exploitation of the non-affluent (as I suspect Anna does) rather than from high productivity (as I do) the argument would more or less make sense.

People moving from poor areas to wealthy areas would earn more, but probably not nearly as much as the typical already-weathy resident, largely because (e.g.) Rumanians aren’t as productive as Britons (due to poorer skills, not genetic inferiority; their descendents will be equally productive). Rumanians-in-the-U.K. will still be relatively cheap labor. (Wage controls could decrease their cheapness, but that will either result in lots of unemployed Rumanians-in-the-U.K. or not so many moving.)

We also have examples of lots of poor people being integrated into affluent economies, e.g., largely unrestricted European immigration into the U.S. around a century ago and (unfortunately) restricted but still large immigration into the U.S. from Mexico and elsewhere now. Two recent studies show that current immigration is having little effect on “native” wages–the already affluent can still afford to buy bras. American society didn’t and hasn’t collapsed.

A more interesting example may be post-apartheid South Africa. In some ways this may be a better model for what would happen in an open immigration world than U.S. immigration, as immigrants have never been a majority in the U.S., while (relatively poor) Africans are the majority in South Africa, as the relatively poor are the majority in the world (in other ways the proximity of relatively poor and wealthy societies in South Africa makes it a bad model–many Rumanians just aren’t going to move across a contient regardless of wage differentials).

I haven’t looked for post-apartheid wage data before (I plan to now), but a paper on Education and Racial Inequality in Post-Apartheid South Africa from last year seems to indicate that there is a decreased but still very large earnings differential between blacks and whites. Apparently there is still relatively cheap labor available to make bras, and South Africa hasn’t collapsed.

Anyhow, I find it amusing that both the marxist-influenced and the bigoted agree that open immigration would cause the collapse of American society, they just don’t agree on whether that would be a good thing!

I don’t think open immigration would destroy capitalism or end affluence (the opposite in both cases), but reagardless for moral reaons I think restrictions on movement and employment must be ended, roughly the same reasons South African Apartheid had to go.

Randolph Fritz also responded:

Mike, there is free movement of capital, but not of labor. Somehow I doubt that this is good for wages.

Not good for wages, but not as bad as both being restricted would be.

Both labor and capital should be free to seek their highest returns anywhere on earth. If they aren’t, they won’t obtain their highest returns, which is bad for wages.

Abominable person theory

Thursday, September 1st, 2005

I am not a fan of the of history, but I’ll give some credence to what I’m going to call abominable person theory, as explained wonderfully at Mahalanobis:

[I]nfluential mistakes create something neither anticipated nor inevitable, while right ideas are somewhat inevitable. Thus good ideas are not so dependent on “great men” because there are lots of smart people and they eventually find the truth (witness the simultaneous discovery of things like evolution by Wallace and Darwin, calculus by Newton and Leibniz, or marginal analysis in economics by Menger, Jevons, and Walras). Bad ideas, in contrast, are infinite in number, and require a special magnetism and impenetrable self-assurance by their champions in order to become influential. Freud is a perfect example, a charlatan who befuddled two generations via his implacable self-esteem. Marx was similar, and Ayn Rand was cut from the same cloth but fortunately her radical ideas against empiricism never had as deleteriously wide an impact as Marx or Freud.

The pièce de résistance:

So for an individual to have great impact, it is probably in some wrong-headed idea about something not obviously falsifiable.

(Not just idea people; nearly anyone remembered as “the Great” was an abominable person.)

That’s most of the post, but read it again, it’ll be fun: The Most Influential Individuals are Generally Bad.

Trillion dollar fraud

Wednesday, August 24th, 2005

Linda Bilmes in a recent New York Times column estimates the total outlay for the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan will come to $1.3 trillion. Christopher Westley cites a 2002 study by William Nordhaus estimating the ten year cost of an Iraq invasion at $1.2 billion:

The figure was outlandish, I was told. This was back at the time when Larry Lindsay was fired for making public his estimate that the war would cost $200 billion when the Bush Administration was estimating a cost of about half that amount.

At a glance it looks like Bilmes and Nordhaus each are including things like debt financing costs, increased veteran’s benefits and oil prices in their estimates, accouting for the half trillion increase over other recent estimates that the direct financial cost of the war could come to $700 trillion.

Regardless, it is clear and bears repeating ad nauseum that the war advocates underestimated financial costs by an order of magnitude and this radical underestimation is recurrent.

Separately, Patri Friedman just posted an article excerpt that provides one summary of how idiotic U.S. government economic (and other) policy in Iraq has been. Read it.

More broadly (sorry, can’t dig up the links right now) I’ve seen pro-war or ambivalent putatively pro-market people lament that the U.S. regime implements a centrally planned economy rather than a hoped for Hong Kong on the Euphrates, or anything close. Sorry, that hope was stupid and ignorant. Why trust the government to do the right thing in Iraq when you agree it almost never does the right thing at home? What about postwar Japan and Germany? Well, in the case of Germany anyway, the allied forces imposed price controls, one of the stupidest economic policies possible, and were aghast when Ludwig Erhard abolished the controls in 1948, paving the way for the economic miracle the U.S. wrongly takes credit for.

The average person has some excuse for believing whatever lies were told about the presence of “weapons of mass destruction”–how could one know? (Personally I find the entire topic incredibly boring. The only reason I didn’t believe is that I assume nearly every phrase uttered by a successful politician is fraudulent.) When the lies concern financial cost or economic policy, there is no excuse for belief, as the lies are basically the same every time.

1,844 Darwin Award Winners!

Wednesday, August 10th, 2005

A few brief notes on Thomas Knapp’s reply to my carping. Knapp writes:

I pay more attention to American deaths, because my goal is to influence the opinions of Americans. Americans are the ones who can bring this debacle to an end.

Understood. I have a different goal: to destroy nationalism. Here’s to our mutual success.

I know of no one who volunteers to be a “slave” when joining the US military. Doing so entails a time-delimited contractual obligation, not involuntary servitude (the contract even includes the specific provisions under which one’s enlistment may be “involuntarily” extended).

Throughout history slavery has not been a singular institution. It has sometimes been time limited. Wikipedia (emphasis added):

The 1926 Slavery Convention described slavery as “…the status or condition of a person over whom any or all of the powers attaching to the right of ownership are exercised…” Therefore a slave is someone who cannot leave an owner or employer without explicit permission, and who will be returned if they escape. Control may be accomplished through official or tacit arrangements with local authorities by masters who have some influence because of their status.

Perhaps calling soldiers slaves is a bit of a stretch, perhaps not. Soldiers are not free humans in any case.

Knapp again:

Furthermore, not only do enlistees not volunteer to be murderers, but their oath of enlistment is very specific in that it binds them to “defend and protect the Constitution of the United States,” not to randomly or non-randomly kill individuals without legitimate cause to do so.

Where defending and protecting is a tremendous stretch and includes engaging in mass murder.

And, if they realize they are being misused, it takes some big-time guts to stand up and say “no, this isn’t in my contract, no that order is not lawful, and no, I’m not going to obey it.”

I have two sets of heroes. The smart or lucky ones: draft dodgers. The stupid or unlucky ones: deserters.

But don’t fuck the kids who are dribbling their blood into the sand because they were naive enough to believe that their country would not ask them to do evil things. They’re victims in this thing as much anyone else. You can’t put someone in an insane situation and then expect sane conduct. It doesn’t work that way.

They weren’t put in an insane situation, they volunteered. Granted, many of them don’t have significant ability to think ahead. Given that lame excuse, in lieu of saying “fuck the U.S. troops” I hereby nominate the 1844 killed so far (17 additional winners since your Sunday post) for a collective darwin award.

Enough dead

Sunday, August 7th, 2005

Thomas Knapp writes:

1,827 … and counting. Enough said.

I shouldn’t pick on Knapp, whose heart is mostly in the right place (and he’s a linkmonger, so he probably won’t mind), but…

The sentiment above, that the number of U.S. government troops killed is all-important, sums up the Iraq war, or similar, pisses me off.

Those who joined the military volunteered to be slaves and volunteered to be murderers. Sure, many of them just wanted to pay for college, but most gangsters are primarily in it for the money too. Fuck the U.S. troops.

Around 25,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed in this war. (Yes, I’m aware of claims that the number is several times higher, but that estimate includes indirect deaths and is tenuous as far as I can tell, and I’m also aware of claims that an Iraqi civil war was an eventuality anyway, but that also seems highly speculative and doesn’t justify any deaths now.) They didn’t volunteer. Enough said.

But I’m all for gratuitous speech. Fuck the U.S. troops. And don’t forget to count small change or to understand real change.

Update 20050809: Thomas Knapp wrote a thorough and pleasant rejoinder, much of which I agree with. I’ll respond to the parts I don’t in a future post.

Agriculture

Wednesday, August 3rd, 2005

It’s possible to explore too little, only producing, getting stuck in a productive rut, a local maximum, eventually obsolete. I’m too often stuck in the opposite rut–only exploring, not getting anything done. So I take vicarious pleasure in reading that Bryn Keller has settled down and chosen a language. Typically, I subscribed to Keller’s blog about six months ago while looking at , a very pragmatic and nice JVM hosted language about which Keller has written several times.

Keller chose Haskell, which is doubtless a good choice, though it sounds like he doesn’t have any outside constraints:

The thing is, I’ve noticed that the code I write in Haskell is usually more elegant than the code I write in other languages, and since this is my time, I can choose what’s important. Crisp, elegant code is important to me.

These days what little programming I get to is mostly Python (largely because Nathan brings Python expertise to my employer, and Python is acceptable), Tcl (two legacy codebases), and PHP and Java (because they’re impossible to avoid).

I don’t think I can resolve to settle down, but I do resolve to retire those Tcl codebases, real soon now (nothing against Tcl; I’ve grown a bit fond of it over the years).

$700 billion fraud

Thursday, July 21st, 2005

Autonomous Liberalization

Thursday, June 23rd, 2005

Tyler Cowen gives CAFTA a very qualified endorsement which I mostly agree with. The clincher:

Failure of the treaty would be a disaster, again for symbolic reasons. Trade negotiations would slow down significantly, and the age of trade agreements might be over.

What age of trade agreements? According to the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects: Trade, Regionalism, and Development unilateral trade liberalization accounts for two thirds of tariff reductions over the past twenty years. Regional agreements like CAFTA only accounted for ten percent.

Downgrade symbolism and upgrade strategy: unilateral free trade is the way forward, followed by worldwide agreements, the latter spurred by the former. And drop the non-trade stuff, like exporting intellectual protectionism.

Still, I find it hard to not root for CAFTA, if only because the economic neanderthals on the other side are so ugly.

(CAFTA is doubtless a very ugly treaty too, with payoffs and exceptions galore. Dare I say that those pursuing treaties rather than unilateral liberalization overestimate public good problems and underestimate rent seeking problems?)